The Caribbean has not set out to loosen its trade dependence on the United States. It is being driven to do so.
For generations, Caribbean importers and consumers have looked first to the American market. They have done so for reasons of preference and practicality. The United States is near. Shipping is easier. Delivery is faster. Commercial routes are established. Refrigerated cargo and container services are structured to support the trade. For food, medicines, household supplies, machinery and construction materials, the American market has long been the natural first choice.
The United States has for many years enjoyed a significant trade surplus with Caribbean countries, and that surplus remains overall, notwithstanding the more recent oil and gas exports from Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago. Even there, the United States benefits from supply by nearby, reliable and friendly countries.
The Caribbean, therefore, has been a loyal market. That is precisely why recent developments deserve sober reflection. No sensible government in the region wishes to weaken ties with a country that has long been central to Caribbean commerce. But the cumulative effect of recent U.S. trade measures is now forcing governments, businesses and consumers in the Caribbean to reconsider assumptions that once seemed settled.
Three pressures are driving that change.